人类干预和捕食者-猎物动态对生态系统病毒传播的影响。

IF 2.7 2区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
Chaos Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1063/5.0247884
Shidong Zhai, Jiyu Zhang, Yuhan Tang, Jun Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类和捕食者在生态系统中占据主导地位,通常被认为在维持生态系统稳定方面发挥决定性作用,特别是在病毒传播的情况下。然而,情况并非总是如此。通过建立涵盖人类视角和捕食者视角的生态系统病毒传播模型,得出以下结论:(1)从人类视角控制疫苗接种活动可以潜在地降低传播率,提高群体免疫力,从而间接保护未接种疫苗的风险群体。(2)在生态系统中,人类的视角并不总是决定病毒的传播。一旦捕食者和猎物之间的生态平衡被破坏,就可能出现捕食者种群灭绝,猎物种群过剩,或者捕食者和猎物都灭绝的情况。在这种情况下,病毒的传播几乎没有影响,系统无法自行恢复到新的平衡状态。在这种情况下,即使人类介入,也很难改变物种灭绝的命运。(3)在捕食者和猎物种群保持稳定状态的情况下,人类的态度和行动尤为关键。人为干预可直接影响病毒的传播率和宿主的恢复率,从而迅速降低感染率,减轻病毒造成的危害。如果人类不进行干预,捕食者可能会长期受到感染,从而对生态系统构成严重威胁。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of human intervention and predator-prey dynamics on ecosystem virus transmission.

Humans and predators occupy dominant positions in ecosystems and are generally believed to play a decisive role in maintaining ecosystem stability, particularly in the context of virus transmission. However, this may not always be the case. By establishing some ecosystem virus transmission models that cover both human perspectives and predators, we have drawn the following conclusions: (1) Controlling vaccination activities from the human perspective can potentially lower the transmission rate and improve herd immunity, thereby indirectly protecting unvaccinated risk groups. (2) In the ecosystem, the human perspective does not always determine the spread of viruses. Once the ecological balance between predators and prey is disrupted, there may be scenarios where predator populations die out, prey populations overpopulate, or both predators and prey go extinct. In such cases, the spread of the virus has little impact, and the system cannot restore itself to a new equilibrium state. In this case, even if humans intervene, it is difficult to change the fate of species extinction. (3) In situations where predator and prey populations maintain a stable state, human attitudes and actions are particularly critical. Human intervention can directly affect the transmission rate of the virus and the recovery rate of hosts, thereby rapidly reducing the infection rate and mitigating the harm caused by the virus. If humans do not intervene, predators may remain infected for a long time, thereby posing a serious threat to the ecosystem.

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来源期刊
Chaos
Chaos 物理-物理:数学物理
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.80%
发文量
448
审稿时长
2.3 months
期刊介绍: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to increasing the understanding of nonlinear phenomena and describing the manifestations in a manner comprehensible to researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines.
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