Burden, trends, and predictions of liver cancer in China, Japan, and South Korea: analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Background: Liver cancer (LC) is a major concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, Korea, and Japan. In this study, we aimed to investigate the burden, trends, and predictions related to LC in these countries.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the epidemiological characteristics [incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)] for LC were analysed and stratified by specific etiologies in China, Japan, and South Korea. We examined temporal trends in LC burden over the last 32 years and projected changes over the following 25 years. The risk factors associated with LC deaths and DALYs were also investigated.

Results: In 2021, the highest LC-related incidence, mortality, and DALYs were recorded in China (196,637 incidents, 172,068 mortalities, and 4,890,023 DALYs), and the lowest in South Korea (18,642 incidents, 13,674 deaths, and 326,336 DALYs). South Korea recorded the highest age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality, and DALYs for LC (19.94 per 100,000, 14.53 per 100,000, and 354.57 per 100,000), and Japan the lowest (9.89, 7.29, and 145.74, respectively). From 1990 to 2021, LC incidents and deaths in the three countries increased, and the trends in ASRs decreased. LC incidents and deaths caused by five etiologies also increased in the past 32 years, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was the largest increasing etiologies in China. Infections with hepatitis B virus remained the leading cause of LC in China and South Korea, while hepatitis C virus was the prevailing cause in Japan. High body mass index (BMI) was the most sharply increasing risk factor in China. Alcohol and drug use were the main risk factors for LC in South Korea and Japan, respectively. The LC burden in the three countries was projected to rise steadily between 2022 and 2046.

Conclusions: LC remains a significant disease burden in China, Japan, and South Korea now and over the next 25 years. Regarding etiologies and risk factors, NASH and high BMI in China, alcohol use in South Korea, and drug use in Japan should receive significant attention.