Effects of land management technology adoptions on land use land cover dynamics using GIS and remote sensing: the case of Goyrie watershed, southern Ethiopia

Understanding land use/land cover (LULC) changes is crucial for informing policymakers and planners on the dynamics affecting environmental and resource management. Most past studies highlighted the significance of LULC changes and their driving forces in various locations. However, comprehensive analyses that combine the impact of land management technologies (LMTs) on LULC changes using GIS and remote sensing tools have not been widely addressed. Thus, the study analyzes the effects of LMT adoptions on LULC dynamics and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Goyrie watershed from 1993 to 2022. It also examines household perceptions of the cause of LULC changes. Methodologically, Landsat 5 TM (1993), Landsat 5 ETM + (2008), and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2022) images were employed to analyze LULC changes and NDVI. Binary logistic regression models were used to identify households’ perceptions of the causes of LULC changes. The findings revealed that the Goyrie watershed has experienced significant LULC changes since 1993. During the entire study period, the shares of grassland, shrub land, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 89.4%, 8.5%, 53.6%, and 1613.4% from their original sizes, respectively. Conversely, the coverage of bare land and forest land declined by 99.5% and 99.7%, with annual rates of decline of 3.29% and 3.3%, respectively. Throughout the study period, the increasing trends in grassland and shrub land, along with the decline in bare land, were attributed to LMT practices. The NDVI values of moderate and dense vegetation density decreased by 81.8% and 92.2%, respectively, from 1993 to 2022 due to the expansion of settlement areas and cultivated lands. Population pressure, expansion of settlements and agriculture, fuel extraction, LMTs, and policy issues significantly influenced the LULC changes. The study concludes that more sustainable and integrated LMT practices should be essential to managing the related risks of LULC changes.