Time to progression predicts outcome of patients with multiple myeloma that can be influenced by autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Objectives: Currently, there is limited understanding regarding the prognostic significance of time to progression (TTP) after first remission in multiple myeloma (MM).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 209 patients with MM. These patients were categorized into ≤ 6 months, ≤ 12 months, ≤ 24 months, > 24 months, 6-12 months, and 12-24 months subgroups based on TTP.

Results: Patients in ≤ 12 months group exhibited shorter median overall survival (OS) and OS-1 compared to those in ≤ 24 months group (61.73 vs 96.10 months, P = 0.02; 54.00 vs 74.17 months, P = 0.048). ≤ 6 months group exhibited shorter median OS and OS-1 compared to 6-12 months group (33.63 vs 79.60 months, P = 0.022; 19.93 vs 65.17 months, P = 0.015). Patients in 6-12 months group had shorter median OS and OS-1 compared to those in 12-24 months group (79.60 vs 100.43 months, P < 0.001; 65.17 vs 77.17 months, P = 0.012).No significant difference in OS was observed between patients in 12-24 months and > 24 months groups. For patients who experienced progression within 12 or 24 months after remission, undergoing autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (ASCT) after progression conferred a median OS and OS-2 advantage over receiving post-progression chemotherapy. Multivariable analysis confirmed that TTP was an independent predictor for OS in patients with MM.

Conclusion: Patients with MM who experience earlier disease progression within 12 months after remission have a worse prognosis, and post-progression ASCT can improve their survival outcomes.