Predicting type 2 diabetes and testosterone effects in high-risk Australian men: development and external validation of a 2-year risk model.

Objective: We have shown that men aged 50 years+ at high risk of type 2 diabetes treated with testosterone together with a lifestyle program reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes at 2 years by 40% compared to a lifestyle program alone. To develop a personalized approach to treatment, we aimed to explore a prognostic model for incident type 2 diabetes at 2 years and investigate biomarkers predictive of the testosterone effect.

Design: Model development in 783 men with impaired glucose tolerance but not type 2 diabetes from Testosterone for Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes; a multicenter, 2-year trial of Testosterone vs placebo. External validation performed in 236 men from the Examining Outcomes in Chronic Disease in the 45 and Up Study (EXTEND-45, n = 267 357).

Methods: Type 2 diabetes at 2 years defined as 2-h fasting glucose by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) ≥11.1 mmol/L. Risk factors, including predictive biomarkers of testosterone treatment, were assessed using penalized logistic regression.

Results: Baseline HbA1c and 2-h OGTT glucose were dominant predictors, together with testosterone, age, and an interaction between testosterone and HbA1c (P = .035, greater benefit with HbA1c ≥ 5.6%, 38 mmol/mol). The final model identified men who developed type 2 diabetes, with C-statistics 0.827 in development and 0.798 in validation. After recalibration, the model accurately predicted a participant's absolute risk of type 2 diabetes.

Conclusions: Baseline HbA1c and 2-h OGTT glucose predict incident type 2 diabetes at 2 years in high-risk men, with risk modified independently by testosterone treatment. Men with HbA1c ≥ 5.6% (38 mmol/mol) benefit most from testosterone treatment, beyond a lifestyle program.