P J Bröckelmann, H Müller, M Fuchs, S Gillessen, D A Eichenauer, S Borchmann, A S Jacob, K Behringer, J Momotow, J Ferdinandus, B Böll, X Yang, C Kobe, H-T Eich, C Baues, W Klapper, A Engert, P Borchmann, B von Tresckow
{"title":"霍奇金淋巴瘤患者无进展生存期与总生存期的相关性：随机GHSG试验中个体患者数据的综合分析","authors":"P J Bröckelmann, H Müller, M Fuchs, S Gillessen, D A Eichenauer, S Borchmann, A S Jacob, K Behringer, J Momotow, J Ferdinandus, B Böll, X Yang, C Kobe, H-T Eich, C Baues, W Klapper, A Engert, P Borchmann, B von Tresckow","doi":"10.1016/j.annonc.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) after first-line treatment of classical Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and to assess the potential of PFS as a surrogate parameter for OS.</p><p><strong>Patients and methods: </strong>We analyzed individual patient data collected during and after treatment with polychemotherapy in nine randomized phase III trials [German Hodgkin Study Group (GHSG) HD7-HD15] between January 1993 and August 2018. The effects of 16 experimental treatments on PFS and OS at the trial level were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression and linear weighted least squares regression. At the patient level, marginal Cox PH models for multiple endpoints were applied using the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld method.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>At least one PFS and OS event was recorded in 1682 and 1064 of 10 605 patients, respectively. At the trial level, there was a strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS (weighted Pearson r = 0.72, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.54, P < 0.001). At the patient level, a moderate to strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS was observed, with Pearson r values ranging between 0.61 and 0.85 (each P < 0.001) and an overall r = 0.74. A regression model that accounted for different types of experimental treatments and historical progress across trial generations achieved a very strong correlation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.93). When applied to data from the contemporary first-line ECHELON-1 trial, this model successfully predicted OS from PFS {prognosticated ln[HR(OS)] = -0.68 as compared with observed ln[HR(0.59)] = -0.53}.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In first-line trials of HL, PFS and OS, as well as treatment effects and prognostic effects on these endpoints, are strongly correlated. PFS serves as a strong predictor of treatment effects on OS, providing valuable insights many years before OS can be reliably assessed.</p>","PeriodicalId":8000,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Oncology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":56.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Correlation between progression-free and overall survival in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma: a comprehensive analysis of individual patient data from randomized German Hodgkin Study Group (GHSG) trials.\",\"authors\":\"P J Bröckelmann, H Müller, M Fuchs, S Gillessen, D A Eichenauer, S Borchmann, A S Jacob, K Behringer, J Momotow, J Ferdinandus, B Böll, X Yang, C Kobe, H-T Eich, C Baues, W Klapper, A Engert, P Borchmann, B von Tresckow\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.annonc.2024.12.009\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) after first-line treatment of classical Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and to assess the potential of PFS as a surrogate parameter for OS.</p><p><strong>Patients and methods: </strong>We analyzed individual patient data collected during and after treatment with polychemotherapy in nine randomized phase III trials [German Hodgkin Study Group (GHSG) HD7-HD15] between January 1993 and August 2018. The effects of 16 experimental treatments on PFS and OS at the trial level were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression and linear weighted least squares regression. At the patient level, marginal Cox PH models for multiple endpoints were applied using the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld method.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>At least one PFS and OS event was recorded in 1682 and 1064 of 10 605 patients, respectively. At the trial level, there was a strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS (weighted Pearson r = 0.72, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.54, P < 0.001). At the patient level, a moderate to strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS was observed, with Pearson r values ranging between 0.61 and 0.85 (each P < 0.001) and an overall r = 0.74. A regression model that accounted for different types of experimental treatments and historical progress across trial generations achieved a very strong correlation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.93). When applied to data from the contemporary first-line ECHELON-1 trial, this model successfully predicted OS from PFS {prognosticated ln[HR(OS)] = -0.68 as compared with observed ln[HR(0.59)] = -0.53}.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In first-line trials of HL, PFS and OS, as well as treatment effects and prognostic effects on these endpoints, are strongly correlated. PFS serves as a strong predictor of treatment effects on OS, providing valuable insights many years before OS can be reliably assessed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8000,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annals of Oncology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":56.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-12-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annals of Oncology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2024.12.009\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Oncology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2024.12.009","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Correlation between progression-free and overall survival in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma: a comprehensive analysis of individual patient data from randomized German Hodgkin Study Group (GHSG) trials.
Background: This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) after first-line treatment of classical Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and to assess the potential of PFS as a surrogate parameter for OS.
Patients and methods: We analyzed individual patient data collected during and after treatment with polychemotherapy in nine randomized phase III trials [German Hodgkin Study Group (GHSG) HD7-HD15] between January 1993 and August 2018. The effects of 16 experimental treatments on PFS and OS at the trial level were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression and linear weighted least squares regression. At the patient level, marginal Cox PH models for multiple endpoints were applied using the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld method.
Results: At least one PFS and OS event was recorded in 1682 and 1064 of 10 605 patients, respectively. At the trial level, there was a strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS (weighted Pearson r = 0.72, R2 = 0.54, P < 0.001). At the patient level, a moderate to strong correlation between treatment effects on PFS and OS was observed, with Pearson r values ranging between 0.61 and 0.85 (each P < 0.001) and an overall r = 0.74. A regression model that accounted for different types of experimental treatments and historical progress across trial generations achieved a very strong correlation (R2 = 0.93). When applied to data from the contemporary first-line ECHELON-1 trial, this model successfully predicted OS from PFS {prognosticated ln[HR(OS)] = -0.68 as compared with observed ln[HR(0.59)] = -0.53}.
Conclusion: In first-line trials of HL, PFS and OS, as well as treatment effects and prognostic effects on these endpoints, are strongly correlated. PFS serves as a strong predictor of treatment effects on OS, providing valuable insights many years before OS can be reliably assessed.
期刊介绍：
Annals of Oncology, the official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology and the Japanese Society of Medical Oncology, offers rapid and efficient peer-reviewed publications on innovative cancer treatments and translational research in oncology and precision medicine.
The journal primarily focuses on areas such as systemic anticancer therapy, with a specific emphasis on molecular targeted agents and new immune therapies. We also welcome randomized trials, including negative results, as well as top-level guidelines. Additionally, we encourage submissions in emerging fields that are crucial to personalized medicine, such as molecular pathology, bioinformatics, modern statistics, and biotechnologies. Manuscripts related to radiotherapy, surgery, and pediatrics will be considered if they demonstrate a clear interaction with any of the aforementioned fields or if they present groundbreaking findings.
Our international editorial board comprises renowned experts who are leaders in their respective fields. Through Annals of Oncology, we strive to provide the most effective communication on the dynamic and ever-evolving global oncology landscape.
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