大西洋经向翻转环流的恢复力。

IF 2.7 2区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
Chaos Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI:10.1063/5.0226410
Valérian Jacques-Dumas, Henk A Dijkstra, Christian Kuehn
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引用次数: 0

摘要

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Resilience of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is presented, which leads to a measure capturing "resistance to change" and "ability to return" aspects in a probabilistic way. The application of this measure to a conceptual model demonstrates its suitability for assessing AMOC resilience but also shows its potential use in many other non-autonomous dynamical systems. This framework is then extended to compute the probability that the AMOC undergoes a transition conditioned on an external forcing. Such conditional probability can be estimated by exploiting the information available when computing the resilience of this system. This allows us to provide a probabilistic view on safe operating spaces by defining a conditional safe operating space as a subset of the parameter space of the (possibly transient) imposed forcing.

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来源期刊
Chaos
Chaos 物理-物理:数学物理
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.80%
发文量
448
审稿时长
2.3 months
期刊介绍: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to increasing the understanding of nonlinear phenomena and describing the manifestations in a manner comprehensible to researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines.
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