Prediction of organic geochemical parameters from inorganic geochemical data in the Cretaceous-Danian Moreno Formation, San Joaquin Basin, California

Accurately reconstructing original Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in thermally mature rocks is essential for the correct application of geochemical proxies and understanding organic carbon burial through time. To reconstruct original TOC using empirical methods, it is vital to have an accurate estimate of the original Hydrogen Index (HI). The two most common methods are estimating original HI using kerogen type or using average HI values from immature rocks elsewhere in the basin. This study tests the ability to use inorganic geochemical data to reconstruct original HI using the Upper Cretaceous-Paleogene Moreno Formation from the San Joaquin Basin, California, USA as a case study. The study utilized cores from the Moreno Formation that are thermally immature, thus preserving original HI values, and that span a range in initial HI. First, inorganic geochemical data were produced (elemental abundances and iron speciation) for samples previously analyzed for organic geochemistry. These data suggest that bottom water conditions during deposition of the Moreno Formation were ferruginous (anoxic and non-sulfidic), without development of sustained euxinia (anoxic and sulfidic). Next, a random forest machine learning analysis was implemented to analyze which inorganic geochemical variables best predict HI in the Moreno Formation. The most important proxies were those for detrital input (Ti, Th), marine export productivity (Cu, Ni), and redox proxies for suboxic conditions (Se, Cr, iron speciation). Finally, the random forest framework was used to predict HI values for three main study cores based on their inorganic geochemistry. These predictions were compared stratigraphically and statistically against the measured values and the kerogen type and average HI methods for reconstructing HI and show this new method has better predictive power than approaches based on single values. This indicates strong promise for using inorganic geochemistry, which is relatively immune to thermal maturation, to reconstruct organic geochemical parameters that are modified during burial and diagenetic process.