Predicted breeding values for relative scrapie susceptibility for genotyped and ungenotyped sheep

Scrapie is an infectious prion disease in sheep. Selective breeding for resistant genotypes of the prion protein gene (PRNP) is an effective way to prevent scrapie outbreaks. Genotyping all selection candidates in a population is expensive but existing pedigree records can help infer the probabilities of genotypes in relatives of genotyped animals. We used linear models to predict allele content for the various PRNP alleles found in Icelandic sheep and compiled the available estimates of relative scrapie susceptibility (RSS) associated with PRNP genotypes from the literature. Using the predicted allele content and the genotypic RSS we calculated estimated breeding values (EBV) for RSS. We tested the predictions on simulated data under different scenarios that varied in the proportion of genotyped sheep, genotyping strategy, pedigree recording accuracy, genotyping error rates and assumed heritability of allele content. Prediction of allele content for rare alleles was less successful than for alleles with moderate frequencies. The accuracy of allele content and RSS EBV predictions was not affected by the assumed heritability, but the dispersion of prediction was affected. In a scenario where 40% of rams were genotyped and no errors in genotyping or recorded pedigree, the accuracy of RSS EBV for ungenotyped selection candidates was 0.49. If only 20% of rams were genotyped, or rams and ewes were genotyped randomly, or there were 10% pedigree errors, or there were 2% genotyping errors, the accuracy decreased by 0.07, 0.08, 0.03 and 0.04, respectively. With empirical data, the accuracy of RSS EBV for ungenotyped sheep was 0.46–0.65. A linear model for predicting allele content for the PRNP gene, combined with estimates of relative susceptibility associated with PRNP genotypes, can provide RSS EBV for scrapie resistance for ungenotyped selection candidates with accuracy up to 0.65. These RSS EBV can complement selection strategies based on PRNP genotypes, especially in populations where resistant genotypes are rare.