Risk performance analysis model of escort operation in Arctic waters via an integrated FRAM and Bayesian network

Escort operation is an effective mean to ensure the safety of ship navigation in the Arctic ice area and expand the window period for ship navigation. At the same time, the operation mode between icebreaker and escorted ship may also causes collision accident. In order to scientifically reflect the complex coupling relationship in the escort operation system in Arctic waters and effectively manage the navigation risks. This study proposes to use the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to identify the risk factors of ship escort operation in Arctic waters, and uses the Bayesian network (BN) method to establish a risk assessment model for escort operation collision accident. The cloud model is used to process the uncertain data information. The proposed method is applied during the actual escort operation of a commercial ship on the Arctic Northeast Passage. According to the model simulation results, the risk performance of ship escort operation in Arctic waters is quantitatively analyzed, and the key risk causes are further analyzed. This study has positive significance for better understanding the risk evolution mechanism of ship escort operation in Arctic ice area and helping relevant management departments to take risk control measures.