Modelling the epidemiological and economic impact of digital adherence technologies with differentiated care for tuberculosis treatment in Ethiopia.

Background: Digital adherence technologies (DATs) with associated differentiated care are potential tools to improve tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes and reduce associated costs for both patients and healthcare providers. However, the balance between epidemiological and economic benefits remains unclear. Here, we used data from the ASCENT trial to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological and economic impact of DAT interventions in Ethiopia.

Methods: We developed a compartmental transmission model for TB, calibrated to Ethiopia and parameterised with patient and provider costs. We compared the epidemiological and economic impact of two DAT interventions, a digital pillbox and medication labels, to the current standard of care, assuming each was introduced at scale in 2023. We projected long-term TB incidence, mortality and costs to 2035 and conducted a threshold analysis to identify the maximum possible epidemiological impact of a DAT intervention by assuming 100% treatment completion for patients on DAT.

Findings: We estimated small and uncertain epidemiological benefits of the pillbox intervention compared with the standard of care in Ethiopia, with a difference of -0.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) -1.1%; +2.0%) incident TB episodes and -0.7% (95% UI -2.2%; +3.6%) TB deaths. However, our analysis also found large total provider and patient cost savings (US$163 (95% UI US$118; US$211) and US$3 (95%UI: US$1; US$5), respectively, over 2023-2035), translating to a 50.2% (95% UI 35.9%; 65.2%) reduction in total cost of treatment. Results were similar for the medication label intervention. The maximum possible epidemiological impact a theoretical DAT intervention could achieve over the same timescale would be a 3% (95% UI 1.4%; 5.5%) reduction in incident TB and an 8.2% (95% UI 4.4%; 12.8%) reduction in TB deaths.

Interpretation: DAT interventions, while showing limited epidemiological impact, could substantially reduce TB treatment costs for both patients and the healthcare provider.