Failed lane-changing detection and prediction using naturalistic vehicle trajectories

Lane-changing maneuvers are crucial driving behaviors closely linked to various collisions, such as rear-end and sideswipe collisions. Precisely predicting lane-changing maneuvers can aid drivers in making informed decisions, thus enhancing driving safety. However, existing research primarily focuses on successful lane-changing maneuvers, neglecting failed ones. This study comprehensively investigates the detection and prediction of failed lane-changing maneuvers in discretionary scenarios using naturalistic vehicle trajectory data. The Mexican hat wavelet (MHW) is employed to accurately detect key time points in successful or failed lane-changing events, including the start, occurrence of failure, and end of the lane-changing maneuver. Subsequently, a failed lane-changing prediction model based on GA-XGBoost is developed to proactively perceive whether a lane-changing maneuver will succeed before it initiates. Moreover, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique assesses feature importance and interaction effects between features in the prediction model. The results demonstrate that MHW effectively identifies critical time points in lane-changing events. The proposed GA-XGBoost model achieves an impressive 94.55% accuracy in predicting failed lane-changing maneuvers before the driver initiates the lane-changing maneuver. SHAP values reveal that failed lane-changing maneuvers often result from a high collision risk between the subject vehicle (SV) and the following vehicle in the target lane (FVT). Consequently, drivers should pay increased attention to approaching vehicles from behind. Moreover, accelerating during lane-changing helps maintain a safe distance from FVT, improving the likelihood of a successful lane-changing. Integrating the proposed model into advanced driver-assistance systems or autonomous driving systems has the potential to significantly enhance driving safety.