Evolution of eruption rate between two caldera-forming eruptions in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, USA

Rhyolites that erupted between the Otowi and Tshirege members of the Bandelier Tuff, known as the Valle Toledo Member, were investigated in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field to infer changes in eruptive rate and flux between two caldera-forming eruptions. Our analysis combines high-precision ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single-crystal laser-fusion dating of sanidine, matrix glass compositions and mineralogy of pumice, depositional textures, and volumetric estimates of erupted rhyolites to present a revised Valle Toledo Member eruptive chronology that integrates our observations with those of previous studies. With the improved temporal resolution of our high-precision eruption ages (median 2σ uncertainty of ±2.9 ka), the updated Valle Toledo Member eruption chronology consists of at least 42 temporally or mineralogically distinct eruptions that we group into four periods of time based on eruption rate. Within the first 8.1 ± 5.1 kyr (∼1605–1597 ka) that followed the Otowi caldera-forming eruption at 1605.4 ± 2.3 ka, six eruptions are recognized. This suggests an average recurrence interval on the order of 1.4 ± 0.9 kyr. Twenty-seven eruptions occurred during the next 194.4 ± 5.1 kyr (from ∼1597–1403 ka) and the average recurrence interval increased to 7.2 ± 0.2 kyr. Following this second period of slower eruption rate, a previously unrecognized eruption hiatus of up to 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr occurred from 1402.9 ± 2.3 ka to 1240.5 ± 2.1 ka. Resumption of volcanic activity is characterized by a series of at least nine volcanic eruptions during the next 8.6 ± 2.5 kyr, culminating in the eruption of the 400 km³ Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff and formation of Valles caldera at 1231.9 ± 1.3 ka. This last phase of pre-caldera activity has the shortest observed average recurrence interval (1.0 ± 0.3 kyr) and greatest eruptive flux (≥ 0.4 ± 0.2 km³/kyr) that occurred between the two caldera-forming eruptions. We interpret the shifts in eruption rate and flux following the 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr eruption hiatus, in addition to mineralogical changes present in post-hiatus rhyolites, as indicators that the Bandelier system was trending towards another major eruption. The magmatic system may have grown gradually throughout the ca. 162 kyr period of volcanic repose; however, the heightened eruption rate in the ca. 10 kyr before caldera collapse is consistent with relatively rapid growth of the magmatic system before the Tshirege event as previously proposed by other studies. Furthermore, the new dataset is consistent with prior geochronology studies of the region that show the four largest explosive eruptions in the Jemez field were all proceeded by very slow eruptive rates or hiatuses. This demonstrates that sequences of heightened volcanic activity can initiate on rapid geological timescales from states of volcanic quiescence in the Bandelier system.