The dynamic patterns of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and its severity and risk of cardiovascular disease.

Background: While metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is widely recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the connection between the dynamic patterns of severity of hepatic steatosis and the associated CVD risk remains uncertain.

Method: This study included 71,098 participants from the Kailuan Study without CVD or cancer who underwent two consecutive biennial health screenings between 2006 and 2008 and were followed up until 2022. MAFLD and its severity were assessed using ultrasound. Participants were categorized into four groups based on dynamic MAFLD patterns: MAFLD-free, MAFLD-progression, MAFLD-regression, and MAFLD-persistence. MAFLD-regression was further divided into regression from mild MAFLD and regression from moderate/severe MAFLD. Cox proportional hazard regression models analyzed the association between the progression and regression of MAFLD and CVD risk.

Result: After a mean follow-up of 12.63 ± 3.16 years, 7838 individuals experienced incident CVD, 5374 had strokes, 1321 had myocardial infarctions, and 1819 developed heart failure. After adjusting for potential confounders, MAFLD-progression was associated with a higher CVD risk compared to MAFLD-free (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.17-1.33), but this risk decreased with increasing age. Individuals with MAFLD-persistence had the highest CVD risk (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.46-1.62). Compared to persistent MAFLD, regression from mild MAFLD was associated with a lower CVD risk (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.76-0.91).

Conclusion: The progression of MAFLD can increase the risk of CVD, while regression of MAFLD can decrease the risk of CVD. These findings suggest that the dynamic patterns of MAFLD significantly influence CVD risk.