Trajectory of Multiple Chronic Conditions and Associated Factors Among Noninstitutionalized Adults Aged 60 Years or Older in Southern Brazil.

Introduction: The prevalence of chronic conditions is increasing worldwide. The objective of this study was to describe the trajectory of the occurrence of multiple chronic conditions during 6 years of follow-up and investigate their association with demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral health characteristics of older adults in Southern Brazil.

Methods: We used data from a longitudinal study (the Como Vai? study) of noninstitutionalized adults aged 60 or older living in the urban area of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul. We assessed the number of chronic conditions based on a list of 24 conditions in 3 interviews, conducted in 2014, 2016-2017, and 2019-2020. We used group-based semiparametric modeling to identify groups of participants based on the number of chronic conditions. For associations with participant characteristics, we performed multinomial logistic regression and considered a low, moderate, and high burden of chronic conditions.

Results: Of the 1,451 older adults in the cohort, 1,098 (75.7%) were included in analysis. Almost one-third (30.9%) had a low burden (2.3 conditions), more than half (52.0%) had a moderate burden (5.6 conditions), and 17.1% had a high burden (9.7 conditions). Men (relative risk [RR] = 6.10; 95% CI, 3.64-10.22), those aged 80 years or older (RR = 2.33; 95% CI, 1.15-4.72), those with no education (RR= 4.78; 95% CI, 2.19-10.45), and former smokers (RR = 1.53; 95% CI, 0.96-2.44) had a higher risk of being classified in the high-burden group than in the low-burden group.

Conclusion: Most older adults belonged to the group with a moderate number of chronic conditions. Several sociodemographic characteristics were associated with belonging to the trajectory with a greater number of conditions.