精神病学中的诊断测试：从贝叶斯观点出发的见解和实例。

IF 1.2 4区医学 Q4 PSYCHIATRY

Australasian Psychiatry Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1177/10398562241300887

Paul A Maguire, Jeffrey Cl Looi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的：展示贝叶斯定理在临床诊断检测中的应用，尤其是在罕见病方面的应用，加深对检测前概率及其影响的理解：展示贝叶斯定理在临床诊断检测中的应用，尤其是在罕见疾病方面，加深对检测前概率及其影响的理解：贝叶斯定理能够在获得新信息时修正事件发生的条件概率。它表明，当一种疾病的发病率很低时，会出现大量假阳性，从而降低诊断检测的临床效用和成本效益，即使所选检测的敏感性和特异性相对较高也是如此。

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Diagnostic testing in psychiatry: insights and examples from a Bayesian perspective.

Objective: To demonstrate the application of Bayes' theorem to diagnostic testing in clinical settings, especially with respect to rare diseases, enhancing an understanding of pre-test probability and its implications.

Conclusion: Bayes' theorem enables the revision of the conditional probabilities of an event occurring when new information is acquired. It demonstrates that when the prevalence of a disease is very low, there are a high number of false positives, thereby reducing the clinical utility and cost benefit profile of the diagnostic test, even in the presence of relatively high sensitivities and specificities of the chosen test.

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来源期刊

Australasian Psychiatry 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

159

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Australasian Psychiatry is the bi-monthly journal of The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists (RANZCP) that aims to promote the art of psychiatry and its maintenance of excellence in practice. The journal is peer-reviewed and accepts submissions, presented as original research; reviews; descriptions of innovative services; comments on policy, history, politics, economics, training, ethics and the Arts as they relate to mental health and mental health services; statements of opinion and letters. Book reviews are commissioned by the editor. A section of the journal provides information on RANZCP business and related matters.