中国的商业周期是否受到气候政策不确定性的影响？

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2024.106344

Juan Chen, Zuoping Xiao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用非对称时变检验法，以货币供应指数（M2、M1 和 M0）作为经济代用指标，评估中国气候政策不确定性（CCPU）对其商业周期（2000-2022 年）的影响。线性格兰杰检验表明，CCPU 与货币供应量之间总体上没有因果关系。然而，时变分析表明，2020 年 12 月之后，中央政策单位对 M2 有显著影响。此外，M2 主要对 CCPU 的负向冲击做出反应，而 M1 和 M0 则对正向和负向冲击做出反应。因此，决策者应采取稳定措施，在 CCPU 激增期间缓解 M2 收缩，同时监测 M1 和 M0，以进行全面的货币政策调整。

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Is the business cycle getting hit by climate policy uncertainty in China?

This study apply an asymmetric time-varying test to assess the impact of China's climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) on its business cycle (2000–2022) using currency supply indices (M2, M1, and M0) as economic proxies. Linear Granger tests indicate no causal relationship between CCPU and the currency supply in general. However, the time-varying analysis reveals a significant impact of CCPU on M2 after December 2020. In addition, M2 mainly responds to negative CCPU shocks whereas M1 and M0 respond to both positive and negative shocks. Therefore, policymakers should adopt stabilisation measures to mitigate M2 contraction during CCPU surges while monitoring M1 and M0 for comprehensive currency policy adjustments.

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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