A fractional-derivative kernel learning strategy for predicting residual life of rolling bearings

In the field of mechanical equipment maintenance, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling bearings is crucial for ensuring reliable equipment operation. However, prevalent deep learning methods face challenges such as limited sample sizes, and “black-box” mechanisms. To enhance the accuracy and interpretability of rolling bearing RUL prediction, a novel fractional-derivative kernel mean $p$-power error filtering algorithm (FrKMPE) is introduced. A comprehensive analysis of convergence for this method in terms of both mean error and mean square error criteria is provided. By combining the memory properties of fractional-derivative with the adaptability of kernel method, it can effectively capture features of non-stationary signals and sensitively monitor changes of rolling bearing health states (HSs). The effectiveness of the FrKMPE is validated through its application to the prediction of RUL using the IEEE PHM 2012 challenge dataset and the XJTU-SY dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed FrKMPE outperforms existing kernel adaptive filtering and deep learning methods in rolling bearing RUL prediction. The proposed method has advantages in dealing with complex nonlinear data and improving prediction accuracy, and provides a new perspective and solution for rolling bearing RUL prediction.