Prediction of Ki-67 expression and malignant potential in gastrointestinal stromal tumors: novel models based on CE-CT and serological indicators.

Purpose: To identify more reliable imaging and serological indicators for predicting Ki-67 expression and malignant potential in gastrointestinal stromal tumors, as well as to develop a preoperative prediction model with clinical utility.

Patients and methods: This study retrospectively analyzed patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) diagnosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University between May 2018 and May 2024. Univariate logistic analyses, two-way stepwise regression, P-value stepwise regression, and LASSO regression were employed to screen for Ki-67 high expression and high malignant potential risk factors associated with GIST. Models were established using various regression methods; Nomograms, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves were generated for the two best prediction models.

Results: Two-way stepwise regression analysis revealed that diameter (P=0.037; OR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.46), growth pattern (extraluminal type: P=0.028; OR=3.54; 95% CI: 1.14 - 10.94), enhancement model (P=0.099; OR=0.39; 95% CI: 0.12 - 1.20), EVFDM (P=0.069; OR=0.43; 95% CI: 0.17 - 1.07), PLR (P=0.099; OR=3.06; 95% CI: 0.81 - 11.59), and OPNI (P=0.058; OR=2.38; 95% CI: 0.97 - 5.84) are identified as independent risk factors for Ki-67 expression. Utilizing the two-way stepwise regression model to predict Ki-67 expression, the area under the curve (AUC) for the training group was 0.865 (95% CI: 0.807-0.922), while for the validation group it was 0.784 (95% CI: 0.631-0.937). The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for the training group were 153.360 and 174.619, respectively. Two-way stepwise regression analysis revealed that volume (P < .001, OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.09), contour (P = 0.066; OR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.05 - 0.62), ulcer (P = 0.094; OR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.03 - 0.98), IBSC (P = 0.008; OR = 5.27; 95% CI: 1.57 - 17.69), and OPNI (P = 0.045; OR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.05 - 0.96) are independent risk factors for malignant potential. Utilizing the two-way stepwise regression model to predict malignant potential, the AUC for the training group was 0.950 (95% CI: 0.920 - 0.980), while for the validation group it was 0.936 (95% CI: 0.867 - 1.000). The AIC and BIC values for the training group were 96.330 and 114.552, respectively.

Conclusion: Diameter, growth pattern, enhancement pattern, EVFDM, PLR, and OPNI are independent risk factors for GIST with high Ki-67 expression. Additionally, volume, contour, ulceration, IBSC, and OPNI serve as independent risk factors for GIST with high malignant potential. The preoperative models developed using CT images can predict the malignant potential and Ki-67 expression status of GIST to a certain extent. When combined with serological indicators, these models' predictive performance can be further enhanced.