Establishment of a locally adaptive allele in multidimensional continuous space.

Local adaptation is widely seen when species adapt to spatially heterogeneous environments. Although many theoretical studies have investigated the dynamics of local adaptation using two-population models, there remains a need to extend the theoretical framework to continuous space settings, reflecting the real habitats of species. In this study, we use a multidimensional continuous space model and mathematically analyze the establishment process of local adaptation, with a specific emphasis on the relative roles of mutation and migration. First, the role of new mutations is evaluated by deriving the establishment probability of a locally adapted mutation using a branching process and a diffusion approximation. Next, the contribution of immigrants from a neighboring region with similar environmental conditions is considered. Theoretical predictions of the local adaptation rate agreed with the results of Wright-Fisher simulations in both mutation-driven and migration-driven cases. Evolutionary dynamics depend on several factors, including the strength of migration and selection, population density, habitat size, and spatial dimensions. These results offer a theoretical framework for assessing whether mutation or migration predominantly drives convergent local adaptation in spatially continuous environments in the presence of patchy regions with similar environmental conditions.