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Depending on the dataset, prediction task, and algorithm, accurate uncertainty estimations might be unfeasible to obtain. Moreover, the optimum UQ metric also varies across applications, and previous investigations have shown a lack of consistency across benchmarks. Herein, the UNIQUE (UNcertaInty QUantification bEnchmarking) framework is introduced to facilitate a comparison of UQ strategies in ML-based predictions. This Python library unifies the benchmarking of multiple UQ metrics, including the calculation of nonstandard UQ metrics (combining information from the dataset and model), and provides a comprehensive evaluation. In this framework, UQ metrics are evaluated for different application scenarios, e.g., eliminating the predictions with the lowest confidence or obtaining a reliable uncertainty estimate for an acquisition function. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
机器学习(ML)模型已成为许多学科决策的关键,包括药物发现和药物化学。在化合物合成或实验测试等重大决策中使用 ML 模型之前,通常会对其进行评估。然而,没有一个 ML 模型在现实世界的所有情况下都是稳健的或具有预测性的。因此,近年来 ML 预测的不确定性量化(UQ)变得越来越重要。许多研究都侧重于开发能为基于 ML 的预测提供准确不确定性估计的方法。遗憾的是,目前还没有一种不确定性量化策略能始终如一地对模型在新样本上的适用性提供可靠的估计。根据数据集、预测任务和算法的不同,准确的不确定性估计可能难以获得。此外,最佳 UQ 指标也因应用而异,以往的研究表明不同基准之间缺乏一致性。在此,我们引入了 UNIQUE(UNcertaInty QUantification bEnchmarking)框架,以方便比较基于 ML 的预测中的 UQ 策略。这个 Python 库统一了多个 UQ 指标的基准测试,包括非标准 UQ 指标的计算(结合数据集和模型的信息),并提供了全面的评估。在这一框架中,UQ 指标针对不同的应用场景进行评估,例如,剔除置信度最低的预测,或为获取函数获得可靠的不确定性估计。总之,该库将有助于标准化 UQ 调查和评估新方法。
UNIQUE: A Framework for Uncertainty Quantification Benchmarking.
Machine learning (ML) models have become key in decision-making for many disciplines, including drug discovery and medicinal chemistry. ML models are generally evaluated prior to their usage in high-stakes decisions, such as compound synthesis or experimental testing. However, no ML model is robust or predictive in all real-world scenarios. Therefore, uncertainty quantification (UQ) in ML predictions has gained importance in recent years. Many investigations have focused on developing methodologies that provide accurate uncertainty estimates for ML-based predictions. Unfortunately, there is no UQ strategy that consistently provides robust estimates about model's applicability on new samples. Depending on the dataset, prediction task, and algorithm, accurate uncertainty estimations might be unfeasible to obtain. Moreover, the optimum UQ metric also varies across applications, and previous investigations have shown a lack of consistency across benchmarks. Herein, the UNIQUE (UNcertaInty QUantification bEnchmarking) framework is introduced to facilitate a comparison of UQ strategies in ML-based predictions. This Python library unifies the benchmarking of multiple UQ metrics, including the calculation of nonstandard UQ metrics (combining information from the dataset and model), and provides a comprehensive evaluation. In this framework, UQ metrics are evaluated for different application scenarios, e.g., eliminating the predictions with the lowest confidence or obtaining a reliable uncertainty estimate for an acquisition function. Taken together, this library will help to standardize UQ investigations and evaluate new methodologies.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling publishes papers reporting new methodology and/or important applications in the fields of chemical informatics and molecular modeling. Specific topics include the representation and computer-based searching of chemical databases, molecular modeling, computer-aided molecular design of new materials, catalysts, or ligands, development of new computational methods or efficient algorithms for chemical software, and biopharmaceutical chemistry including analyses of biological activity and other issues related to drug discovery.
Astute chemists, computer scientists, and information specialists look to this monthly’s insightful research studies, programming innovations, and software reviews to keep current with advances in this integral, multidisciplinary field.
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