Exploring the impacts of climate change and identifying potential adaptation strategies for sustainable rice production in Thailand’s Lower Chao Phraya Basin through crop simulation modeling

The lower Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand, a major rice-producing area, is grappling with increased water scarcity alongside more frequent floods and droughts, necessitating effective adaptation strategies to sustain agricultural productivity. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on rice yield and irrigation water use, using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Based on these findings, potential genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies were recommended. The model was calibrated and evaluated using the data from field experiments conducted at the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand during 2017–2018 and 2021–2022. The grain yield and irrigation water use between baseline (2010–2022) and future climate periods (early-century: 2023–2040, mid-century: 2041–2070, and late-century: 2071–2100) were compared. Future climate projections were based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 project under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The model calibration and evaluation demonstrated very good performance statistics, with a d-index of 0.85 during both calibration and evaluation. The model simulations indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures in the lower CPRB are projected to increase by ~ 2 °C and ~ 4 °C in the late century under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Consequently, rice yields are projected to decline by up to 33%, and irrigation water usage to increase by 53% under SSP585 by the late century. Based on the findings, the following major genotype- and management-based adaptation strategies are recommended: (1) Developing heat-tolerant rice cultivars to mitigate yield losses under future climate scenarios, (2) Developing rice cultivars with extended grain-filling duration to enhance both irrigation water use and yield, (3) Shifting the planting date 1–2 weeks earlier (from baseline planting date of 20 July), and shifting fertilizer application date 1–2 weeks earlier (from baseline fertilizer application date of 20 September) for the panicle initiation stage to improve yield, and (4) Optimizing irrigation thresholds (remaining soil water at which to irrigate) to reduce irrigation water use without compromising yield. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of genotype improvement and adaptive management practices in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on rice production in the lower CPRB.