调查对象的通货膨胀预测和 COVID 期间

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI:10.1002/for.3169

Michael P. Clements

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在不确定的时期，过去的变量之间的关系可能不再适用于预测未来，那么专业人士如何进行预测呢？在通货膨胀预测方面，我们通过衡量受访者在大流行病期间对《19 世纪经济增长与失业危机》之前的菲利普斯曲线模型的坚持程度来回答这个问题。我们还询问专业人士在 COVID-19 期间是否应该信任他们的菲利普斯曲线模型。在回答这些问题时，我们考虑到了受访者预测的异质性以及他们对菲利普斯曲线关系的看法。

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Survey respondents' inflation forecasts and the COVID period

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Survey respondents' inflation forecasts and the COVID period

How do professionals forecast in uncertain times, when the relationships between variables that held in the past may no longer be useful for forecasting the future? For inflation forecasting, we answer this question by measuring survey respondents' adherence to their pre-COVID-19 Phillips curve models during the pandemic. We also ask whether professionals ought to have put their trust in their Phillips curve models over the COVID-19 period. We address these questions allowing for heterogeneity in respondents' forecasts and in their perceptions of the Phillips curve relationship.

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来源期刊

Journal of Forecasting Multiple-

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

5.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.