用贝叶斯法确定中子辐照还原活化铁素体/马氏体钢 F82H 的参考标准强度

IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Takashi Nozawa , Hiroyasu Tanigawa , Taichiro Kato , Xiang (Frank) Chen , Yutai Katoh
{"title":"用贝叶斯法确定中子辐照还原活化铁素体/马氏体钢 F82H 的参考标准强度","authors":"Takashi Nozawa ,&nbsp;Hiroyasu Tanigawa ,&nbsp;Taichiro Kato ,&nbsp;Xiang (Frank) Chen ,&nbsp;Yutai Katoh","doi":"10.1016/j.jnucmat.2024.155486","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. The objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":373,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Nuclear Materials","volume":"604 ","pages":"Article 155486"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method\",\"authors\":\"Takashi Nozawa ,&nbsp;Hiroyasu Tanigawa ,&nbsp;Taichiro Kato ,&nbsp;Xiang (Frank) Chen ,&nbsp;Yutai Katoh\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jnucmat.2024.155486\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. The objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":373,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Nuclear Materials\",\"volume\":\"604 \",\"pages\":\"Article 155486\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Nuclear Materials\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022311524005877\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Nuclear Materials","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022311524005877","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

结构部件设计中广泛采用的确定性方法依赖于利用经验确定的安全系数来系统地确定设计限值。然而,这种方法并不总是合适的,因为结构在实际环境中会承受各种荷载,这可能会导致设计限值过于保守。近年来,结合材料强度分布的更严格的概率方法已成为一种重要的解决方案。在概率方法中,材料强度属性的概率密度函数是设计标准的基础。本研究的目的是确定最能描述辐照 F82H 拉伸性能的密度分布函数,从而为 DEMO 设计定义参考强度。由于现有数据数量有限,本研究特别采用了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的贝叶斯预测方法,以确定具有统计可靠性的材料参考值,并研究其有效性。例如,评估了 300 °C 辐照材料的拉伸性能对辐照损伤的依赖性以及 95% 贝叶斯估算法预测的范围。作为统计参数剂量依赖性的统计模型,正态分布对 0.2% 抗张强度和拉伸强度的拟合效果更好,而总伸长率数据的分布对正态分布模型和 Weibull 分布模型都给出了可比较的参考值。两种模型都给出了总伸长率数据分布的可比标准。对于均匀伸长率,Weibull 模型也给出了更好的结果。对 0.2% 抗压强度和抗拉强度而言,最能说明该模型的函数是对数法则,而对总伸长率和均匀伸长率而言,则是幂次法则。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method
The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. The objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of Nuclear Materials
Journal of Nuclear Materials 工程技术-材料科学:综合
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
25.80%
发文量
601
审稿时长
63 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Nuclear Materials publishes high quality papers in materials research for nuclear applications, primarily fission reactors, fusion reactors, and similar environments including radiation areas of charged particle accelerators. Both original research and critical review papers covering experimental, theoretical, and computational aspects of either fundamental or applied nature are welcome. The breadth of the field is such that a wide range of processes and properties in the field of materials science and engineering is of interest to the readership, spanning atom-scale processes, microstructures, thermodynamics, mechanical properties, physical properties, and corrosion, for example. Topics covered by JNM Fission reactor materials, including fuels, cladding, core structures, pressure vessels, coolant interactions with materials, moderator and control components, fission product behavior. Materials aspects of the entire fuel cycle. Materials aspects of the actinides and their compounds. Performance of nuclear waste materials; materials aspects of the immobilization of wastes. Fusion reactor materials, including first walls, blankets, insulators and magnets. Neutron and charged particle radiation effects in materials, including defects, transmutations, microstructures, phase changes and macroscopic properties. Interaction of plasmas, ion beams, electron beams and electromagnetic radiation with materials relevant to nuclear systems.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信