The economic burden of long COVID in Australia: more noise than signal?

Objective

To estimate the potential economic burden of long COVID in Australia.

Design

A stock-and-flow model of weekly estimated numbers of people with long COVID (January 2021 to June 2023); application of proxy cost estimates from people living with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome; time series analysis of labour market and social security datasets.

Setting

The working age Australian population.

Main outcome measures

The likely number of Australians severely impacted by long COVID; the economic cost of long COVID; and the impacts of long COVID, determined by analysis of labour market data.

Results

At its peak in late 2022, between 181 000 and 682 000 Australians may have experienced some long COVID symptoms, of whom 40 000–145 000 may have been severely affected. Severe cases potentially decreased to affecting 10 000–38 000 people by June 2023. The likely economic burden of long COVID in Australia during 2022 was between $1.7 billion and $6.3 billion (some 0.07% to 0.26% of gross domestic product). Labour market data suggest that between 25 000 (February 2023) and 103 000 (June 2023) more working age Australians reported being unable to work due to long term sickness than would have been predicted based on pre-COVID-19 trends. This does not appear to have translated into increased claims for Disability Support Pensions, but numbers of working age Carer Allowance recipients have grown markedly since 2022.

Conclusions

Long COVID likely imposed a small but significant aggregate toll on the Australian economy, while exposing tens of thousands of Australians to substantial personal economic hardship and contributing to labour market supply constraints. Yet while some signal from long COVID is discernible in the labour force data, Australia lacks adequate direct surveillance data to securely guide policy making.