Forest fates: Unraveling the peri-urban social–ecological trajectories in Mexico City's conservation land

Peri-urban areas provide multiple ecosystem services, but face critical challenges, including deforestation, unplanned urban sprawl, and environmental pollution and degradation. To address these issues, environmental public policy instruments have been implemented. This paper aims to investigate the social ecological trajectories of a peri-urban area of Mexico City and the role of environmental public policy instruments in addressing land use change. Focusing on four watersheds of the southern periphery of the city, we analyze land use change drivers through neural networks and Markov chains, and we develop two land use scenarios for the next 20 years: one characterized by business as usual and another with a more restrictive land use regime. Our findings show that infrastructure drivers are the most critical factor overall, when combined with the historical social ecological trajectory of the study area. The impact of environmental public policy instruments on future trajectories demonstrates their potential to decrease deforestation. The results provide insights for the integrated territorial planning of peri-urban areas with similar social ecological dynamics and developing context.