Can high-speed rail improve agricultural land use in China’s counties? From the perspective of dynamic network two-stage model

Low agricultural land use efficiency (ALE) is an important issue that restricts agricultural economy. This study explores the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on ALE in China’s counties. Calculate ALE based on a two-stage dynamic network model with shared inputs, and analyze the impact of HSR on ALE in the production stage and benefit transformation stage. Results show that: (1) HSR can promote ALE, and has a higher promoting effect on ALE in the benefit conversion stage. (2) Characteristics of HSR (including HSR speed, commuting frequency, and irreplaceability) as well as the characteristics of HSR stations (including the number of HSR stations, location advantages, and floor area) all show a positive correlation with ALE. (3) In the production stage, HSR reduces ALE by accelerating non-agricultural employment, and promotes ALE by improving agricultural technological innovation; In the benefit transformation stage, HSR promotes ALE by improving the development of rural e-commerce and agricultural product processing industry. (4) HSR has a higher promoting effect on ALE in major grain producing areas, western regions, and poverty-stricken counties. (5) HSR shows inter-regional spillover and intra-regional spillover effects. On the one hand, HSR will drive ALE in counties with a radius less than 20 km; on the other hand, HSR will also drive ALE in neighboring counties within 30 km. This study provides macro implications in transportation infrastructure construction for improving ALE.