Accumulated seizure burden predicts neurodevelopmental outcome at 36 months of age in patients with tuberous sclerosis complex.

Objective: Epilepsy and intellectual disability are common in tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC). Although early life seizures and intellectual disability are known to be correlated in TSC, the differential effects of age at seizure onset and accumulated seizure burden on development remain unclear.

Methods: Daily seizure diaries, serial neurodevelopmental testing, and brain magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed for 129 TSC patients followed from 0 to 36 months. We used machine learning to identify subgroups of patients based on neurodevelopmental test scores at 36 months of age and assessed the stability of those subgroups at 12 months. We tested the ability of candidate biomarkers to predict 36-month neurodevelopmental subgroup using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Candidate biomarkers included age at seizure onset, accumulated seizure burden, tuber volume, sex, and earlier neurodevelopmental test scores.

Results: Patients clustered into two neurodevelopmental subgroups at 36 months of age, higher and lower scoring. Subgroup was mostly (75%) the same at 12 months. Significant univariable effects on subgroup were seen only for accumulated seizure burden (largest effect), earlier test scores, and tuber volume. Neither age at seizure onset nor sex significantly distinguished 36-month subgroups, although for girls but not boys there was a significant effect of age at seizure onset. In the multivariable model, accumulated seizure burden and earlier test scores together predicted 36-month neurodevelopmental group with 82% accuracy and an area under the curve of .86.

Significance: These results untangle the contributions of age at seizure onset and accumulated seizure burden to neurodevelopmental outcomes in young children with TSC. Accumulated seizure burden, rather than the age at seizure onset, most accurately predicts neurodevelopmental outcome at 36 months of age. These results emphasize the need to manage seizures aggressively during the first 3 years of life for patients with TSC, not only to promote seizure control but to optimize cognitive function.