Parallel multiple-chain DRAM probabilistic model for ultrasonic pulse velocity of concrete performance in the pipe of arch bridge

The existing models for predicting the compaction state of concrete inside steel tubes based on ultrasonic wave velocity have a major limitation in that they cannot comprehensively consider concrete compressive strength, instar, and various sources of uncertainties, both subjective and objective. To overcome this limitation, the study introduced a probability model for ultrasonic wave velocity in the concrete performance inside arch bridge steel tubes, based on the parallel multiple-chain Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm. Initially, the study considers the influence of concrete compressive strength and instar, establishing a simplified deterministic model for predicting concrete compactness inside the tubes. Building on this, the study incorporates material stochastic uncertainty and cognitive uncertainty, deriving analytical expressions for a probabilistic prediction model of concrete compactness. Furthermore, using parallel processing alongside the DRAM algorithm, the study explores how the number of parallel chains and the order of acceptance probabilities influence the probabilistic model parameters. The study selected and updated the posterior distribution information of the probabilistic model parameters. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was validated using experimental data. As shown in the analysis, with better prediction accuracy and lower dispersion, the model not only selects the optimal Markov chain iteration path in a short time, but also corrects the parameters affecting the prediction accuracy of the existing model, and also provides a probabilistic method for correcting the confidence intervals of the existing model.