Sustainable development of urban agglomerations around lakes in China: Achieving SDGs by regulating Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand through New-type Urbanization

The mechanism through which New-type Urbanization (NU), as a new direction in urban development, influences the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by regulating the Ecosystem Services (ES) supply and demand remains to be determined. It is particularly true in urban agglomerations around lakes, characterized by severe human-land conflicts, where socio-economic development is closely linked to water. We selected China's urban agglomerations around lakes as the study area. We investigated the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of NU and the Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand Ratio (ESDR) from 2000 to 2018. We specifically focused on the dynamic trends of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). Furthermore, we utilized Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to reveal the direct effects and indirect pathways through which NU influences the achievement of SDGs in the study area, emphasizing the differentiated performance of this mechanism across various urban agglomerations around Lakes. The results indicated that the ESDR has a particularly evident downward trend in urban centers along lakes, rivers, and road networks in spatial terms. The level of NU in urban agglomerations around lakes has increased by about 50% overall. It geographically exhibits three main spatial distribution patterns: “diffusion along the lake,” “homogeneous distribution,” and “diffusion along the river.” NU directly inhibits the achievement of SDGs but indirectly promotes the improvement of ESDR for food production and soil conservation, thereby indirectly facilitating the achievement of SDG 2 and SDG 15, but has an inhibitory effect on SDG 13. By regulating ESDR, NU is most effective in achieving SDGs in the urban agglomerations around Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake but has a significant inhibitory effect on the urban agglomeration around Hongze Lake. This research provides quantitative evidence for the urban planning shift, terrestrial ecosystem function restoration, and SDGs achievement in urban agglomerations around lakes. It also offers new insights from China for the sustainable urban construction of urban agglomerations around lakes worldwide.