{"title":"基于活动区磁能的太阳耀斑最大 X 射线等级短期预测模型","authors":"I. V. Zimovets, I. N. Sharykin","doi":"10.1134/S0016793224600541","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The accuracy of the M. Aschwanden’s (2020) model for short-term (24 h) prediction of the maximum X-ray class of solar flares based on the power-law dependence on the energy of the potential magnetic field of active regions is checked and assessed. For this purpose, a sample of 275 flares (253 M-class and 22 X-class) in isolated active regions on the solar disk in 2010−2023 is analyzed. Magnetic field extrapolations are made in the nonlinear force-free and potential approximations using the GX Simulator based on photospheric vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). It is found that in 6% of cases, Aschwanden’s model underestimates the predicted maximum flare class with respect to the observed one (maximal underestimation by 4.4 times). The accuracy of this model (the average ratio of the observed to predicted maximum flare class) is 0.31 ± 0.47. Four other statistical models are proposed, two of which, like Aschwanden’s model, are based on the power-law dependence of the maximum flare class on the energy of potential magnetic field, and the other two are based on the power-law dependence on the free magnetic energy of active regions. These models give fewer (or no) underestimations of the maximum flare class, but two to three times lower forecast accuracy, ranging from 0.11 to 0.17. Additionally, based on the obtained statistical sample, estimates of the limiting X-ray class of solar flares are made. The five models give different limits ranging from ~X14 to ~X250. The realism of these values and the possibility of refining the models by expanding the sample of events is briefly discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":55597,"journal":{"name":"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy","volume":"64 5","pages":"603 - 614"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Models for Short-Term Forecast of Maximum X-ray Class of Solar Flares Based on Magnetic Energy of Active Regions\",\"authors\":\"I. V. Zimovets, I. N. Sharykin\",\"doi\":\"10.1134/S0016793224600541\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The accuracy of the M. Aschwanden’s (2020) model for short-term (24 h) prediction of the maximum X-ray class of solar flares based on the power-law dependence on the energy of the potential magnetic field of active regions is checked and assessed. For this purpose, a sample of 275 flares (253 M-class and 22 X-class) in isolated active regions on the solar disk in 2010−2023 is analyzed. Magnetic field extrapolations are made in the nonlinear force-free and potential approximations using the GX Simulator based on photospheric vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). It is found that in 6% of cases, Aschwanden’s model underestimates the predicted maximum flare class with respect to the observed one (maximal underestimation by 4.4 times). The accuracy of this model (the average ratio of the observed to predicted maximum flare class) is 0.31 ± 0.47. Four other statistical models are proposed, two of which, like Aschwanden’s model, are based on the power-law dependence of the maximum flare class on the energy of potential magnetic field, and the other two are based on the power-law dependence on the free magnetic energy of active regions. These models give fewer (or no) underestimations of the maximum flare class, but two to three times lower forecast accuracy, ranging from 0.11 to 0.17. Additionally, based on the obtained statistical sample, estimates of the limiting X-ray class of solar flares are made. The five models give different limits ranging from ~X14 to ~X250. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
M.Aschwanden(2020 年)根据活动区潜在磁场能量的幂律依赖关系对太阳耀斑最大 X 射线等级进行短期(24 小时)预测的模型的准确性进行了检查和评估。为此,分析了 2010-2023 年太阳圆盘上孤立活动区的 275 个耀斑样本(253 个 M 级和 22 个 X 级)。根据太阳动力学观测台(SDO)搭载的日震和磁成像仪(HMI)的光层矢量磁图,使用 GX 模拟器按照非线性无作用力近似和电势近似进行了磁场外推。研究发现,在 6% 的情况下,Aschwanden 的模型低估了预测的最大耀斑等级(最大低估 4.4 倍)。该模型的准确度(观测值与预测值的平均比值)为 0.31 ± 0.47。还提出了其他四个统计模型,其中两个与阿施万登的模型一样,都是基于最大耀斑等级与潜在磁场能量的幂律依赖关系,另外两个是基于活动区自由磁能的幂律依赖关系。这些模型对最大耀斑等级的低估较少(或没有),但预报精度却低两到三倍,从 0.11 到 0.17 不等。此外,根据获得的统计样本,还对太阳耀斑的极限 X 射线等级进行了估计。五个模型给出了从 ~X14 到 ~X250 的不同限值。简要讨论了这些数值的现实性以及通过扩大事件样本来完善模型的可能性。
Models for Short-Term Forecast of Maximum X-ray Class of Solar Flares Based on Magnetic Energy of Active Regions
The accuracy of the M. Aschwanden’s (2020) model for short-term (24 h) prediction of the maximum X-ray class of solar flares based on the power-law dependence on the energy of the potential magnetic field of active regions is checked and assessed. For this purpose, a sample of 275 flares (253 M-class and 22 X-class) in isolated active regions on the solar disk in 2010−2023 is analyzed. Magnetic field extrapolations are made in the nonlinear force-free and potential approximations using the GX Simulator based on photospheric vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). It is found that in 6% of cases, Aschwanden’s model underestimates the predicted maximum flare class with respect to the observed one (maximal underestimation by 4.4 times). The accuracy of this model (the average ratio of the observed to predicted maximum flare class) is 0.31 ± 0.47. Four other statistical models are proposed, two of which, like Aschwanden’s model, are based on the power-law dependence of the maximum flare class on the energy of potential magnetic field, and the other two are based on the power-law dependence on the free magnetic energy of active regions. These models give fewer (or no) underestimations of the maximum flare class, but two to three times lower forecast accuracy, ranging from 0.11 to 0.17. Additionally, based on the obtained statistical sample, estimates of the limiting X-ray class of solar flares are made. The five models give different limits ranging from ~X14 to ~X250. The realism of these values and the possibility of refining the models by expanding the sample of events is briefly discussed.
期刊介绍:
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.