Construction of a five-gene-based prognostic model for relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Background: Relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R ALL) continues to be a major cause of mortality in children worldwide, with around 15% of ALL patients experiencing relapse and approximately 10% eventually dying from the disease. Early identification of R/R ALL in children has posed a longstanding clinical challenge.

Method: Genetic analysis of survival outcomes in pediatric patients with ALL from the TARGET-ALL dataset revealed five risk score factors identified through the intersection of differential genes (relapse/non-relapse) from the GSE17703 and GSE6092 databases. A risk score equation was formulated using these factors and validated against prognostic data from 46 ALL cases at our institution. Patients from multiple datasets were stratified into high and low-score groups based on this equation. Protein-protein interaction networks (PPI) were then constructed using the intersecting differential genes from all three datasets to identify hub nodes and predict interacting transcription factors. Additionally, genes related to cell pyroptosis with varying expression across these datasets were screened, and a multifactorial ROC curve (incorporating risk score and differential expression of pyroptosis-related genes) was generated. Furthermore, relationships among variables in the predictive model were depicted using a nomogram, and model efficacy was assessed through decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: By analyzing the TARGET-ALL, GSE17703, and GSE6092 databases, we developed a prognostic risk assessment model for pediatric ALL incorporating BAG2, EPHA4, FBXO9, SNX10, and WNK1. Validation of this model was conducted using data from 46 pediatric ALL cases obtained from our institution. Following the identification of 27 differentially expressed genes, we constructed a PPI and identified the top 10 hub genes (PTPRC, BTK, LCK, PRKCQ, CD3D, CD27, CD3G, BLNK, RASGRP1, VPREB1). Using this network, we predicted the top 5 transcription factors (HOXB4, MYC, SOX2, E2F1, NANOG). ROC and DCA were conducted on pyroptosis-related genes exhibiting differential expression and risk scores. Subsequently, a nomogram was generated, demonstrating the effectiveness of the risk score in predicting prognosis for pediatric ALL patients.

Conclusions: We have developed a risk prediction model for pediatric R/R ALL utilizing the genes BAG2, EPHA4, FBXO9, SNX10, and WNK1. This model provides a scientific foundation for early identification of R/R ALL in children.