适应与和平:扩展受气候和冲突影响社区的能力建设议程

Luisa Fernanda Bedoya Taborda, Michele L. Barnes, Tiffany H. Morrison
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对社区赖以生存的社会生态条件的影响可能会增加新冲突的脆弱性。然而,正如政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)所指出的,受气候变化影响最大的社区已经是受冲突影响的社区。在此,我们对有关气候与冲突关系的西班牙文和英文定量和定性研究(n = 212)进行了系统回顾。我们发现,大多数研究都集中于气候变化与暴力冲突之间的直接关系,而对已受冲突影响社区的背景或间接关系关注较少。关于这种背景或间接关系的研究表明,气候变化与冲突之间存在一个负强化循环,即暴力冲突增加了气候变化的脆弱性,而气候变化的反馈又增加了暴力冲突的脆弱性。这些研究虽然数量有限,但提供了重要的见解,有助于进一步发展概念,并对气候影响如何与暴力冲突相互作用以及治理工作如何同时支持和平建设和适应气候变化进行实证研究。将这些工作与冲突研究和适应方面的最新框架结合起来,我们勾勒出了一个前景广阔的综合议程,重点是如何设计政策和项目,以建立协同能力,应对气候变化和暴力冲突的累积和互动影响。如果缺乏这样的洞察力,将气候与冲突并行处理的努力可能是无效的,甚至会适得其反,导致暴力冲突恶化,进而进一步削弱社区建设和平与复原力的能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Adaptation and Peace: Extending the Agenda for Capacity‐Building in Climate and Conflict‐Affected Communities
Climate change impacts on the social–ecological conditions that communities depend on may increase the vulnerabilities to new conflicts. Yet, the communities that will be most impacted by climate change, as noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are already conflict‐affected communities. Here, we present the results of a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative studies (n = 212) in Spanish and English on the climate–conflict relationship. We found that most studies are focused on a direct relationship between climate change and violent conflict, and there has been less attention on a contextual or indirect relationship in already conflict‐affected communities. Studies on this contextual or indirect relationship suggest a climate change–conflict cycle that is negatively reinforcing, whereby violent conflict increases climate change vulnerability and feedback from climate change increases violent conflict vulnerability. While limited in number, such studies provide important insights enabling further conceptual development and empirical examination of how climate impacts interact with violent conflict, and how governance efforts can simultaneously support peacebuilding and climate change adaptation. Drawing this work together with the latest frameworks in conflict studies and adaptation, we sketch out a promising synthetic agenda, focusing on how to design policies and projects that build synergistic capacities and address cumulative and interactive impacts of climate change and violent conflict. Without such insight, efforts to treat climate and conflict in parallel may be ineffective or even counterproductive, worsening violent conflict and, in turn, further reducing the capacities of communities to build peace and resilience.
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