从指数增长率估算 R0 的世代时间分布不确定性边界。

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI:10.1080/17513758.2024.2410720

James Cochran, Bogdan Oancea, Dan Pirjol

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引用次数: 0

摘要

基本繁殖数 R0 是决定流行病在易感人群中传播的主要参数之一。Wallinga 和 Lipsitch 提出了一种利用欧拉-洛特卡方程估算 R0 的方法，该方法需要对世代间隔分布进行拉普拉斯变换。确定世代时间分布具有挑战性，因为世代时间无法直接观测。我们仅利用发电间隔分布的前几个时刻就证明了 R0 的上界和下界，并研究了边界对这些参数的敏感性。这些界值不需要发电间隔分布的确切形状，并给出了 R-R0 关系的稳健估计值。

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Bounding the generation time distribution uncertainty on R₀ estimation from exponential growth rates.

The basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ is one of the main parameters determining the spreading of an epidemic in a population of susceptible individuals. Wallinga and Lipsitch proposed a method for estimating $R_{0}$ using the Euler-Lotka equation, which requires the Laplace transform of the generation interval distribution. The determination of the generation time distribution is challenging, as the generation time is not directly observable. We prove upper and lower bounds on $R_{0}$ using only the first few moments of the generation interval distributions and study the sensitivity of the bounds to these parameters. The bounds do not require the exact shape of the generation interval distribution and give robust estimates of the $r - R_{0}$ relationship.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.