Exploration of Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Retrospective Study.

Objective: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased mortality and morbidity rates owing to cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Timely detection of CVD in RA can greatly improve patient prognosis; however, this technique remains challenging. We aimed to investigate the risk factors for CVD incidence in patients with RA.

Methods: This retrospective study included RA patients without CVD risk factors (n = 402), RA with CVD risk factors (n = 394), and RA with CVD (n = 201). Their data on routine examination indicators, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and immune cells were obtained from medical records. The characteristic variables between each group were screened using univariate analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR) models, and individualized nomograms were further established to more conveniently observe the likelihood of CVD in RA.

Results: Univariate analysis revealed significantly elevated levels of white blood cells (WBC), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, creatine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), VEGF, serum total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), apolipoprotein B100 (ApoB100), and apolipoprotein E (ApoE) in RA patients with CVD, whereas apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) and high-density lipoprotein/cholesterol (HDL/TC) were decreased. Furthermore, the ratio of regulatory T (Treg) cells exhibiting excellent separation performance in RA patients with CVD was significantly lower than that in other groups, whereas the ratios of Th1/Th2/NK and Treg cells were significantly elevated. The LASSO, RF, and LR models were also used to identify the risk factors for CVD in patients with RA. Through the final selected indicators screened using the three machine learning models and univariate analysis, a convenient nomogram was established to observe the likelihood of CVD in patients with RA.

Conclusions: Serum lipids, lipoproteins, and reduction of Treg cells have been identified as risk factors for CVD in patients with RA. Three nomograms combining various risk factors were constructed to predict CVD occurring in patients with RA (RA with/without CVD risk factors).