Cost-effectiveness of Procalcitonin (PCT) guidance for antibiotics management of adult sepsis patients in the Egyptian context.

Background: Sepsis, which is described as a life-threatening organ malfunction brought on by an unbalanced host response to infection, continues to be a significant healthcare issue that affects millions of individuals each year. It is well-known that sepsis can affect anyone around the world, but the employed survey results showed that there are significant regional variations in sepsis incidence as well as mortality rates. Although there are no definite estimates for Egypt, the highest rates were in Low-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Procalcitonin (PCT) is a host response marker with high specificity for bacterial infections, unlike C-reactive protein (CRP) or white blood cell count (WBC), which represent the traditional methods of detecting inflammation and infection. Its dynamic profile and superior prognostic prediction make it invaluable for assessing response to antibiotic treatment and improving clinical care for sepsis patients. Our main purpose was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PCT guidance compared to no PCT guidance in the antibiotic management of adult sepsis patients according to the Egyptian context.

Methods: We developed a decision tree model to compare the PCT-guided antibiotic management duration endpoint versus the conventional laboratory culture-based antibiotic management in adult sepsis patients. We employed the"Delphi technique" to reach a satisfactory consensus regarding the resources attributed to each compared alternative. The primary measure of the study was the additional cost associated with each Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained by sepsis survivors over a one-year time horizon. Base-case, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted using TreeAge, Software.

Results: Base-case analysis showed no dominance for either alternative and resulted in an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) value of 297,783.57 Egyptian Pounds per Quality Adjusted Life Year (L.E/QALY) in favor of the PCT guidance alternative, Deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed that the highest impact magnitudes on ICER reside with seven input parameters, the top two parameters that had the most significant influence were the costs of ICU stay with and without PCT guidance. The CEAC showed a slightly higher probability in terms of acceptability in favor of the no PCT guidance choice along the WTP scale till reaching equal probabilities at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) value point of 390,000 (state currency) after which the - probability supports the PCT guidance choice.

Conclusions: In the Egyptian context, PCT guidance has no cost-effectiveness domination over no PCT guidance in Antibiotics management for adult sepsis patients. This may be attributed to the high cost of PCT investigation that shall be resolved by standardization of its cost when applying the approach of DRG cost packages.