系统性红斑狼疮患者间质性肺病预测模型的开发与外部验证：横断面研究

IF 4.6 2区医学 Q1 RHEUMATOLOGY

Seminars in arthritis and rheumatism Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI:10.1016/j.semarthrit.2024.152556

Wang-Dong Xu , You-Yue Chen , Xiang Wang , Lin-Chong Su , An-Fang Huang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

方法首先收集系统性红斑狼疮患者的临床和实验室数据。然后根据系统性红斑狼疮患者所在的地理位置收集气象数据。诊断结果、单变量逻辑回归、弹性净回归和多变量逻辑回归被用来筛选育龄期并发 ILD 的女性系统性红斑狼疮患者的危险因素。通过计算一致性指数、绘制校准曲线、绘制接收者操作特征曲线和临床决策曲线等方法，利用这些风险因素构建了一个提名图，并对提名图进行了内部和外部验证。开发集中的患者按 7:3 的比例随机分为训练集（N = 1742）和内部测试集（N = 746）。确定了八个独立的 ILD 危险因素，包括 APOB、APOA1、ALP、PLT、HCT、EOS-R、LYM-R 和年龄。结论我们利用易于获取的临床和实验室数据建立了一个提名图模型，用于预测育龄期女性系统性红斑狼疮患者发生 ILD 的概率。

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Development and external validation of a prediction model for interstitial lung disease in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: A cross-sectional study

Objective

The aim of this study is to develop and validate a nomogram that can assist clinicians in identifying female systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients of reproductive age complicated with interstitial lung disease (ILD).

Methods

Clinical, laboratory data of SLE patients were first collected. Meteorological data were then gathered according to the geographical locations of the SLE patients. Diagnostic results, univariate logistic regression, elastic net regression, and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen for risk factors for female SLE patients of reproductive age complicated with ILD. A nomogram was constructed using these risk factors and was internally and externally validated through methods such as calculating the concordance index, plotting calibration curves, drawing receiver operating characteristic curves, and clinical decision curves.

Results

A total of 4798 SLE patients were included in this study, with 2488 patients in the development set and 2310 patients in the external validation set. The patients in the development set were randomly divided into a training set (N = 1742) and an internal testing set (N = 746) at a ratio of 7:3. Eight independent risk factors for ILD were identified, including APOB, APOA1, ALP, PLT, HCT, EOS-R, LYM-R, and age. The nomogram model was developed, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.811 (0.748, 0.875), 0.820 (0.727,0.913), and 0.889 (0.869, 0.909) for the three sets, respectively.

Conclusion

We established a nomogram model using easily accessible clinical and laboratory data to predict the probability of female SLE patients of reproductive age developing ILD.

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来源期刊

Seminars in arthritis and rheumatism 医学-风湿病学

CiteScore

9.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

176

审稿时长

46 days

期刊介绍： Seminars in Arthritis and Rheumatism provides access to the highest-quality clinical, therapeutic and translational research about arthritis, rheumatology and musculoskeletal disorders that affect the joints and connective tissue. Each bimonthly issue includes articles giving you the latest diagnostic criteria, consensus statements, systematic reviews and meta-analyses as well as clinical and translational research studies. Read this journal for the latest groundbreaking research and to gain insights from scientists and clinicians on the management and treatment of musculoskeletal and autoimmune rheumatologic diseases. The journal is of interest to rheumatologists, orthopedic surgeons, internal medicine physicians, immunologists and specialists in bone and mineral metabolism.