The role of the family’s ethnicity and correlates in social workers’ risk perceptions: Evidence from a vignette study in Hungary

Studies have shown that children from some ethnic minority families are disproportionately represented in the child protection system. Ethnic-based treatment is problematic because it challenges whether child protection decision-making is based on the principle of ’the best interests of the child’. Roma children are also overrepresented in the child protection systems of many European countries, but little research has explored why this is so. The present study seeks to address this gap by examining child welfare workers’ perceptions of risk at the early stages of child protection decision-making. The main research question is whether they perceive higher levels of risk if the parents are Roma. Method: We use data from a vignette-based survey conducted among child welfare workers (N = 600) in Hungary in 2018. The factors influencing social workers’ risk perceptions are analysed using multilevel ordinal logistic regressions. The regression models of risk perception include case variables (harm to child, parents’ ethnicity, mother’s education, parents’ employment, housing conditions, living environment, parental alcoholism, mother’s willingness to cooperate), and the individual characteristics of the social worker. Ethnicity is examined individually as well as in interaction with other case characteristics. Results: Findings show that physical harm to the child, parental alcoholism, a messy living environment, and the non-cooperative behaviour of the mother increase the level of risk perceived by child welfare workers. There is no evidence of a statistical association between parental socioeconomic status and the social worker’s perception of risk. Family ethnicity also does not have a statistically significant impact on risk perception (main effect). However, some case characteristics affect risk perception differently when the family is of Roma origin (interaction effects). Physical abuse has a strong effect on the social worker’s perception of risk, but this effect is more modest when the family is of Roma origin. Likewise, the mother’s non-cooperative behaviour is a risk-increasing factor, but this effect disappears for Roma families. Conclusions: Although, no ethnic bias was found in social workers’ perception of risk, our findings indicate that the perception of risk for Roma families is less dependent on the circumstances of the case than for majority families. In some cases, this may lead to an unjustified overestimation of risk or, conversely, an underestimation when the family is Roma.