Reliability modeling for perception systems in autonomous vehicles: A recursive event-triggering point process approach

Ensuring the reliability of sensor-fusion-based perception systems is crucial for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles. Such systems function through a sequence of interconnected stages, where errors in upstream stages may propagate to downstream stages and trigger additional errors. The cross-stage error propagation conceptually exists and makes errors in different stages, not independent, posing model challenges, estimation challenges, and data challenges for reliability modeling. The existing methods cannot be applied to address all these challenges. Thus, this paper presents a recursive event-triggering point process to explicitly consider the error propagation based on the simulated data. The data are simulated from a proposed error injection framework, which can generate various errors from a sequence of interconnected stages in a perception system. The latent and probabilistic error propagation information is incorporated into a modified expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation. The numerical and physics-based simulation case studies demonstrate the prediction accuracy and interpretability of the proposed modeling methodology.