Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province: based on the perspective of land use

Land use/cover change is the second major contributor to carbon emissions, following energy emissions. Studying provincial land-use carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research object. It analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on land-use data and energy consumption. In terms of net carbon emissions, this study utilizes the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation to analyze net carbon emissions change from the municipal and regional perspectives. In terms of carbon ecological carrying capacity, not only the carbon ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was considered, but also the carbon ecological carrying capacity of crops in Shandong Province, which is a large grain province. Using the geographic detector to explore the drivers. Research findings indicate that carbon sources and sinks show a clear spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with the center of gravity of net carbon emissions extending to the northeast. Areas with high carbon ecological carrying capacity have high forest coverage, grassland coverage, and crop yields. Regarding driving factors, the urbanization rate, economic aggregate, and technological progress demonstrate significant explanatory power through single and interaction tests, suggesting that these factors are critical drivers of land-use carbon emissions within Shandong Province. Based on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, each city's growth rate and spatial distribution characteristics can be clarified, providing a scientific basis for the local government to formulate regional and differentiated emission-reduction policies. In addition, by exploring the driving factors of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the influence level of factors on carbon emissions can be revealed to provide references for formulating regional sustainable development strategies.