Spatiotemporal assessment of vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change in Madhya Pradesh, India

Madhya Pradesh, the central state of India, has a larger share of the population depending on the agricultural sector, mainly belonging to tribal groups and are largely marginal and small landholders. Though the sector performed a double-digit growth rate in recent years, this is skewed towards very few districts, whereas others remain neglected. These increasing disparities may lead to increased vulnerability to climate change in the backward districts of this sector. This study assessed the spatial and temporal vulnerability of the sector to climate change with the agricultural vulnerability index prepared using the IPCC approach at the district level for 5 decades (1970s–2010s). Hotspots of agricultural vulnerability where targeted policy interventions are required were located. Through spatial autocorrelation techniques, we identified whether the clustering of agricultural vulnerability exists and detected changes over the decades. This study has wide applications for the agricultural sector in Madhya Pradesh and other Indian states, which possess similar agricultural characteristics.