Lost in space and time: robust demography and enhanced resilience buffer adverse environmental effects in a highly isolated and sedentary pre-pleistocene landscape vertebrate.

Background: Few animal populations have been studied under the framework of the OCBIL theory, which addresses the ecology and evolution of biodiversity on old climatically buffered infertile landscapes. Available genetic data challenge the low connectivity and high genetic differentiation predicted for isolated tepui-summit vertebrate communities, suggesting potential dispersal among summits. However, the OCBIL theory posits reduced dispersibility, enhanced resilience to habitat fragmentation and inbreeding due to small populations. We tested these hypotheses by conducting the first analytic evaluation of the spatial ecology and population biology of a tepui-summit vertebrate at multiple spatial scales.

Results: We used harmonic radar tracking (100 individuals/448 points of contact) and capture-mark-recapture data (596 individuals captured/52 recaptured) to reveal the temporal niche, microhabitat use, population size, and dispersal abilities of the tepui-summit endemic toad Oreophrynella quelchii on Roraima-tepui. Abundance was determined using a closed population model incorporating sources of variation in capture probability. We tested the relative influence of biotic and abiotic variables on distances moved through model selection. Our data indicate that the population size of O. quelchii is remarkably large (ca. 12 million individuals), with strong seasonal demographic fluctuations. Ecology and observed limited spatial movements challenge the likelihood of active dispersal among tepui tops in this species. Our results are counter to those predicted by the available genetic data but support two hypotheses of the OCBIL theory: reduced dispersibility and enhanced resilience. However, they do not support the expectation of a small refugial population size.

Conclusion: We postulate that the insular, hostile tepui-summit environment tends to produce robust demographic populations, likely to buffer stochastic adverse environmental effects, rather than diversity, as observed in much younger post-Pleistocene Neotropical landscapes. Our results draw attention to the value of faunal studies using an OCBIL framework to better understand the ecology and evolution of this unique biota worldwide.