Arterial vascular complications predictive score in extrasystolic arrhythmia "EX-prognosis".

Background: The aim of this study was the creation of an optimal model for predicting arterial vascular complications in patients with extrasystolic arrhythmia.

Methods: A single-center prospective study was performed with involving 634 patients with supraventricular or ventricular extrasystoles (ES) of 700 or more per 24 hours. The control group consisted of 106 people with ES less than 700 per 24 hours. The main and control groups were initially equivalent in anthropometric criteria and concomitant pathology. The list of examinations included laboratory methods (including lipid profile, coagulograms), as well as instrumental studies (transthoracic and/or transesophageal echocardiography (EchoCG), Doppler ultrasound of the brachiocephalic arteries and arteries of the lower extremities, 24-hours ECG monitoring, according to the indications - computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, coronary angiography, stress echocardiography. Prospective observation of patients performed for 1 year after the initial examination. Combined end points: development of arterial vascular complications - stroke, myocardial infarction, distal arterial embolism of other locations. We studied the data on identified complications. Next, we built models for predicting complications in various ways: Decision Tree; Bootstrap Forest; Boosted Tree; Neural Boosted; Support Vector Machines; Fit Stepwise; Nominal Logistic; Generalized Regression Lasso; Generalized Regression Forward Selection; Generalized Regression Pruned Forward Selection; Generalized Regression Elastic Net; Generalized Regression Ridge. To assess the quality of the models and compare them we used cross-validation with 30 replications.

Results: The highest profit values with minimal values of false positive results were obtained for the Bootstrap Forest model. Basing on this model, we created arterial vascular complications predictive score in extrasystolic arrhythmia "EX-prognosis" that included the following parameters: atheroma type III in carotid arteries - 3 points; age 69+ years old - 2 points; ES appearing before transmitral blood flow peak in cardiac cycle 700 and more per 24 hours - 1 point; carotid arteries stenosis, non-significant - 1 point. If total number is 3 and more points, the risk of arterial vascular complications within 1 year is high.

Conclusions: We recommend to use the scale "EX-prognosis" in the clinical practice. For a quick assessment of the total risk, it is optimal to implement the risk14.exe program - calculator - developed by us for a personal computer, based on this scale.