Prognostic model for predicting Alzheimer's disease conversion using functional connectome manifolds.

Background: Early detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for timely management and consideration of therapeutic options; therefore, detecting the risk of conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD is crucial during neurodegenerative progression. Existing neuroimaging studies have mostly focused on group differences between individuals with MCI (or AD) and cognitively normal (CN), discarding the temporal information of conversion time. Here, we aimed to develop a prognostic model for AD conversion using functional connectivity (FC) and Cox regression suitable for conversion event modeling.

Methods: We developed a prognostic model using a large-scale Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, and it was validated using external data obtained from the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies. We considered individuals who were initially CN or had MCI but progressed to AD and those with MCI with no progression to AD during the five-year follow-up period. As the exact conversion time to AD is unknown, we inferred this information using imputation approaches. We generated cortex-wide principal FC gradients using manifold learning techniques and computed subcortical-weighted manifold degrees from baseline functional magnetic resonance imaging data. A penalized Cox regression model with an elastic net penalty was adopted to define a risk score predicting the risk of conversion to AD, using FC gradients and clinical factors as regressors.

Results: Our prognostic model predicted the conversion risk and confirmed the role of imaging-derived manifolds in the conversion risk. The brain regions that largely contributed to predicting AD conversion were the heteromodal association and visual cortices, as well as the caudate and hippocampus. Our risk score based on Cox regression was consistent with the expected disease trajectories and correlated with positron emission tomography tracer uptake and symptom severity, reinforcing its clinical usefulness. Our findings were validated using an independent dataset. The cross-sectional application of our model showed a higher risk for AD than that for MCI, which correlated with symptom severity scores in the validation dataset.

Conclusion: We proposed a prognostic model predicting the risk of conversion to AD. The associated risk score may provide insights for early intervention in individuals at risk of AD conversion.