Anniina L K Mattila, Øystein H Opedal, Maria H Hällfors, Laura Pietikäinen, Susanna H M Koivusaari, Marko-Tapio Hyvärinen
{"title":"一种受气候变化威胁的北极海滨植物的进化拯救潜力。","authors":"Anniina L K Mattila, Øystein H Opedal, Maria H Hällfors, Laura Pietikäinen, Susanna H M Koivusaari, Marko-Tapio Hyvärinen","doi":"10.1098/rspb.2024.1351","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, <i>Primula nutans</i> ssp. <i>finmarchica</i>, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.</p>","PeriodicalId":20589,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11445713/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change.\",\"authors\":\"Anniina L K Mattila, Øystein H Opedal, Maria H Hällfors, Laura Pietikäinen, Susanna H M Koivusaari, Marko-Tapio Hyvärinen\",\"doi\":\"10.1098/rspb.2024.1351\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, <i>Primula nutans</i> ssp. <i>finmarchica</i>, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20589,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11445713/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.1351\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/10/2 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.1351","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/10/2 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The potential for evolutionary rescue in an Arctic seashore plant threatened by climate change.
The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica, confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.
期刊介绍:
Proceedings B is the Royal Society’s flagship biological research journal, accepting original articles and reviews of outstanding scientific importance and broad general interest. The main criteria for acceptance are that a study is novel, and has general significance to biologists. Articles published cover a wide range of areas within the biological sciences, many have relevance to organisms and the environments in which they live. The scope includes, but is not limited to, ecology, evolution, behavior, health and disease epidemiology, neuroscience and cognition, behavioral genetics, development, biomechanics, paleontology, comparative biology, molecular ecology and evolution, and global change biology.