Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production in central Afghanistan

Afghanistan has faced extreme climatic crises such as drought, rising temperature, and scarce precipitation, and these crises will likely worsen in the future. Reduction in crop yield can affect food security in Afghanistan, where the majority of population and economy are completely dependent on agriculture. This study assessed the interaction between climate change and crop yield in Kabul of Afghanistan during the reference (1990–2020) and future (2025–2100) periods. Climate data (1990–2020) were collected from four meteorological stations and three local organizations, and wheat yield data (1990–2020) were acquired from the United States Agriculture Department. Data during the reference period (1990–2020) were used for the validation and calibration of the statistical downscaling models such as the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). Furthermore, the auto-regression model was used for trend analysis. The results showed that an increase in the average annual temperature of 2.15°C, 2.89°C, and 4.13°C will lead to a reduction in the wheat yield of 9.14%, 10.20%, and 12.00% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 during the future period (2025–2100), respectively. Moreover, an increase in the annual maximum temperature of 1.79°C, 2.48°C, and 3.74°C also causes a significant reduction in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 3.60%, and 10.50% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in the annual minimum temperature of 2.98°C, 2.23°C, and 4.30°C can result in an increase in the wheat yield of 6.50%, 4.80%, and 9.30% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. According to the SDSM, the decrease of the average monthly precipitation of 4.34%, 4.10%, and 5.13% results in a decrease in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 2.36%, and 3.18% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. This study suggests that adaptation strategies can be applied to minimize the consequences of climate change on agricultural production.