Transitions in Suicide Risk from Early Adolescence to Early Adulthood.

Objective: Understanding patterns of suicide risk over the course of development can aid our ability to prevent suicide. Our community-based study examined changes in suicide risk status and predictors of changes in risk status in a sample of 521 adolescents over six assessments between the start of middle school and young adulthood (ages 12-22).

Methods: Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) were measured with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children and the Moods and Feelings Questionnaire. Latent transition analysis (LTA) was utilized to evaluate transitions in suicide risk status over the course of development. Nine risk factors' initial values and change over time were modeled as predictors in the LTA.

Results: Latent class analysis identified a four-class model of developmental suicide risk patterns: Class 1: Infrequent STB (73-87% of participants), Class 2: Diminishing STB (1-17% of participants), Class 3: Escalating STB (6-16% of participants), and Class 4: Consistently High STB (1-5% of participants). LTA demonstrated that infrequent STB members and escalating STB members were likely to maintain their risk class across time points.

Conclusions: Classification of STB trajectories demonstrated self-worth and family involvement were salient variables affecting transitions in risk over time and suggest prevention targets early in adolescence that could have impact on suicide risk in adulthood.