为生存而战:问责制与中国地方政府应对 COVID-19 的关联》。

Health systems and reform Pub Date : 2024-12-16 Epub Date: 2024-09-30 DOI:10.1080/23288604.2024.2400725
Bingqing Guo, Karen Ann Grépin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国在三年内坚持零加征增值税战略的能力引起了全球关注,但人们对促成其长期坚持的因素却知之甚少。基于政治晋升锦标赛模型,本文推论中国严格的行政问责制度将地方官员的职业前景与他们在关键政策目标上的表现挂钩,从而激励地方政府维持 COVID-19 政策。利用牛津大学 COVID-19 政府回应追踪系统和中国主要官方媒体的数据,我们进行了中断时间序列分析(ITSA),以研究问责事件是否影响了地方政府的 COVID-19 回应。值得注意的是,我们的分析发现,从 2020 年 5 月 4 日到 2022 年 9 月 30 日,当问责事件发生时,受影响(本地效应)和未受影响(溢出效应)省份的官员都增加了遏制对策,减少了经济支持对策。即使在没有发生新的局部疫情的省份也是如此。问责事件的影响随着地理距离的减小而增加。经过多次稳健性检验后,这些发现仍然一致。行政问责制度是中国实施零COVID战略的关键制度因素,它为有关中央集权国家大流行政策过程的全球文献做出了贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Battle to Survive: The Association Between Accountability and Chinese Local Government Response to COVID-19.

China's ability to sustain the zero-COVID strategy over three years has garnered global attention, but little is known about the factors contributing to its long-term adherence. Based on the political promotion tournament model, this article theorizes that China's strict administrative accountability system, which tied local officials' career prospects to their performance in crucial policy goals, incentivized local governments to sustain COVID-19 policies. Using data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and major official Chinese media outlets, we performed interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine whether the accountability events affected the local government's COVID-19 responses. Noticeably, our analyses found that from May 4, 2020, to September 30, 2022, when an accountability event happened, officials in the affected (local effects) and unaffected (spillover effects) provinces all increased their containment responses and decreased their economic support responses. This is true even for provinces without new localized outbreaks. The effects of accountability events increased with decreasing geographical distance. These findings remain consistent after several robustness checks. The administrative accountability system is a key institutional factor in implementing China's zero-COVID strategy, which contributed to the global literature about the pandemic policy process in centralized countries.

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