评估城市老社区在流行病挑战中的复原力并加强战略

IF 6.5 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Habitat International Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2024.103187

Chengxin Lin, Rixin Chen, Beizhu Wang, Xiaojuan Li

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引用次数: 0

摘要

疫情的爆发对城市的可持续发展构成了巨大风险，这凸显了增强老旧社区抗灾能力的迫切需要，而这正是城市防疫的关键所在。本研究针对老旧社区的特点，采用基于云模型的模糊综合评价（FCE）方法，并选取福州市作为案例，提出了老旧社区抗灾能力评价体系。它从五个维度对七星井新村（A）、省林业厅宿舍（B）和五峰兰亭社区（C）三个社区的抗灾能力进行了评估。研究采用系统动力学（SD）模型，探讨了复原力指标的相互作用和影响机制，预测了趋势和未来发展，并提出了增强复原力的策略。结果表明(1) 社区 B 的复原力最高，其次是社区 A 和社区 C，验证了 FCE 方法的有效性；(2) 复原力在所有维度上都呈上升趋势，没有观察到趋于平稳的迹象；(3) 复原力的增强对设施（A3）、空间（A1）、环境（A2）和居民复原力（A5）的影响极为接近，而治理复原力（A4）的变化最小。本研究为城市老旧社区的抗灾能力研究提供了富有洞察力的贡献，为未来改善公共安全和促进城市发展的实践提供了指导，并对普遍的城市挑战和抗灾战略提供了启示。

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Evaluating resilience and enhancing strategies for old urban communities amidst epidemic challenges

Epidemic outbreaks pose significant risks to sustainable urban development, underscoring the critical need to bolster the resilience of old communities, key to urban epidemic prevention. This study introduces a resilience evaluation system tailored for these communities, employs a cloud model-based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method, and selects Fuzhou City for a case study. It evaluates the resilience of three communities, Qixingjing Xincun (A), the Provincial Forestry Department's dormitory (B), and Wufeng Lanting community (C) across five dimensions. By employing system dynamics (SD) model, the study examines the interplay and impact mechanisms of resilience indicators, predicts trends and future developments, and proposes strategies to enhance resilience. Results indicate that: (1) community B exhibits the highest resilience, followed by A and C, validating the FCE method's efficacy; (2) resilience across all dimensions is on the rise, with no signs of plateauing observed; (3) enhancements in resilience are notably impactful in facility (A3), spatial (A1), environmental (A2) and resident resilience (A5) are extremely close to each other in terms of their impacts, while governance resilience (A4) exhibits minimal changes. Offering insightful contributions to the resilience study of old urban communities, this study serves as a guide for future practice in improving public safety and promoting urban development, and insights into universal urban challenges and resilience strategies.

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来源期刊

Habitat International Multiple-

CiteScore

10.50

自引率

10.30%

发文量

151

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.