Cyberspace: Great Power Competition in a Fragmenting Domain

This article explains how the cyber domain today largely replicates the patterns of devolution and fragmentation observed in the electromagnetic spectrum (EM) and aviation domains more than a century ago. Both remained fragmented under duress of heightened Great Power rivalries and tensions coinciding with World War I and World War II. Relevant history demonstrates that once fragmented under Great Power duress, global domains with obvious incentives for pursuing mutual gains remain fragmented—often until after a severe clash of Great Power militaries. The ongoing cyber domain fragmentation under the pressure of increasing Great Power stress is destined to persist and will render moot legal and diplomatic efforts to constrain risky strategic cyber competition between them. Successful American strategic competition in cyberspace below the threshold of armed conflict requires all national instruments of cyber power—including military ones—be utilized in persistent and assertive strategic cyber-campaigning against Russian and Chinese cyber campaigns that aim for strategically significant erosion of western relative power and cohesion.